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260630_6584_南俊_daiwa_ Nan Juen

更新 2026-07-01

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原始內容

Taiwan

Nan Juen International (6584 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,022.00 (from TWD1,022.00)

Share price (29 Jun): TWD685.00 | Up/downside: +49.2%

Growth story intact after the break

  • ASIC second vendor verification reinforces conviction in share gains
  • Vietnam ramp-up offsets 2Q26 margin pressure from regular server mix
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of TWD1,022

What's new: We provide an update on Nan Juen following the quiet period for its convertible bond issuance.

What's the impact: Nan Juen emerged from its quiet period in June following its convertible bond issuance, which was priced on 24 June. We highlight that Nan Juen has been verified as the second source vendor for ASIC by its second CSP client, a critical milestone that reinforces our confidence in its ASIC share-gain story. On the regular server front, while the second CSP regular server client saw shipment weakness in April-May and is expected to remain at prior-year levels throughout 2Q26, the primary CSP regular server client delivered stronger-than-expected results, maintaining its nearly two-fold YoY shipment volume growth guidance for 2026E, in line with prior expectations. The lower-than-expected contribution from the second CSP regular server, which typically carries high margins, creates headwinds for 2Q26 gross margin. However, this is partially offset by the ramp-up in Vietnam production, where costs are c.20% lower, providing margin accretion. We slightly trim our 2Q26E gross margin to reflect this mix shift, but we still expect a QoQ improvement.

Business outlook. According to our supply chain checks, GB300 demand improved in 2Q26, partly due to delays in VR generation. Nonetheless, Nan Juen's own VR shipment schedule remains on track, targeting late-3Q26 shipments to its primary CSP customer. We view the current rail kit dynamics as a timing adjustment rather than a share loss story. On ASIC, the verified second vendor status by the CSP further solidifies our conviction; we maintain our 20-30% supply share assumption for this generation of ASIC in 2H26E and 2027E. While regular server shipments face near-term headwinds from material constraints, monthly shipment levels have remained resilient. We are closely monitoring a potential demand recovery in 2H26, which could serve as an earnings catalyst for Nan Juen. Combined with the structural margin improvement from Vietnam, a regular server rebound could push gross margins above our current estimates, reinforcing our positive view on the stock.

What we recommend: We lower our 2026E EPS by 0.2% but raise our 2027-28E EPS by c.1% to factor in the latest positive updates in ASIC. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating and 12M TP of TWD1,022, based on a PER of 36x (vs. its past-3-year range of 11-90x), applied to our 4-quarter forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: worse-than-expected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 1-20% above Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more positive on Nan Juen's revenue outlook.

30 June 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (2.5) (0.6) 0.7
Net profit change (0.2) 0.6 0.9
Core EPS (FD) change (0.2) 0.6 0.9

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260630_6584_南俊_daiwa_ Nan Juen_001
260630_6584_南俊_daiwa_ Nan Juen_002
12-month range 170.50-805.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.50
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 25.45
Shares outstanding (m) 70
Major shareholder Ho-Ying lnvestment Co., Ltd. (12.6%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 4,220 7,376 8,245
Operating profit (m) 1,439 3,129 3,904
Net profit (m) 1,185 2,507 3,127
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 17.006 35.983 44.880
EPS change (%) 220.2 111.6 24.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 0.8 20.1 0.9
PER (x) 40.3 19.0 15.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 1.3 2.5
DPS 2.7 9.0 17.0
PBR (x) 11.5 7.9 6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.5 13.3 10.3
ROE (%) 32.5 49.3 44.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 30 June 2026

Nan Juen: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 4,327 4,220 4,076 7,417 7,376 6,271 8,190 8,245 8,190
Diff (%) -2.5% 3.5% -0.6% 17.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Gross Margin (%) 45.4% 46.1% 44.6% 53.8% 54.3% 52.7% 58.9% 59.1% 58.9%
Operating profit 1,442 1,439 1,414 3,111 3,129 2,576 3,869 3,904 3,869
Op Margin (%) 33.3% 34.1% 34.7% 41.9% 42.4% 41.1% 47.2% 47.3% 47.2%
Net profit 1,187 1,185 1,175 2,492 2,507 2,087 3,098 3,126 3,098
EPS (TWD) 17.04 17.00 16.87 35.78 35.98 29.96 44.48 44.88 44.47
Diff (%) -0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 20.1% 0.9% 0.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 867 856 1,132 1,365 1,673 1,914 1,916 1,873 2,433 4,220 7,376 8,245
COGS -507 -492 -599 -676 -793 -855 -868 -856 -1,582 -2,274 -3,372 -3,376
Gross profit 360 364 532 689 881 1,059 1,048 1,017 851 1,946 4,004 4,869
Operating expenses -105 -103 -136 -164 -201 -226 -224 -225 -367 -507 -875 -965
Operating profit 255 261 397 525 680 833 824 792 484 1,439 3,129 3,904
Non-operating profit 39 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 48 42 4 4
Pre-tax profit 294 262 398 527 681 834 825 793 532 1,481 3,133 3,908
Income taxes -59 -52 -80 -105 -136 -167 -165 -159 -162 -296 -626 -781
Net profit 235 209 318 422 545 667 660 635 370 1,185 2,507 3,126
Net EPS (TWD) 3.38 3.01 4.57 6.05 7.82 9.58 9.47 9.11 5.31 17.00 35.98 44.88
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 41.6% 42.5% 47.0% 50.5% 52.6% 55.3% 54.7% 54.3% 35.0% 46.1% 54.3% 59.1%
Operating margin 29.5% 30.5% 35.0% 38.5% 40.6% 43.5% 43.0% 42.3% 19.9% 34.1% 42.4% 47.3%
Pre-tax margin 34.0% 30.6% 35.1% 38.6% 40.7% 43.6% 43.0% 42.4% 21.9% 35.1% 42.5% 47.4%
Net margin 27.1% 24.5% 28.1% 30.9% 32.6% 34.9% 34.4% 33.9% 15.2% 28.1% 34.0% 37.9%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 74% 42% 82% 92% 93% 124% 69% 37% 26% 73% 75% 12%
Gross profit 139% 86% 134% 148% 145% 191% 97% 47% 69% 129% 106% 22%
Operating profit 255% 169% 194% 192% 166% 219% 108% 51% 138% 197% 117% 25%
Pre-tax profit 259% 466% 143% 120% 131% 219% 107% 50% 121% 178% 112% 25%
Net profit 260% 2399% 144% 154% 132% 219% 107% 50% 92% 220% 112% 25%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 22% -1% 32% 21% 23% 14% 0% -2%
Gross profit 30% 1% 46% 29% 28% 20% -1% -3%
Operating profit 42% 2% 52% 32% 29% 23% -1% -4%
Pre-tax profit 23% -11% 52% 33% 29% 23% -1% -4%
Net profit 42% -11% 52% 33% 29% 23% -1% -4%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: 1-year-forward PER bands

260630_6584_南俊_daiwa_ Nan Juen_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen: revenue breakdown

260630_6584_南俊_daiwa_ Nan Juen_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,327.1 3,052.2 6,208.5 7,077.6
Regular server rail kit revenue 0 479.7 357.6 712.1 1,270.6 2,374.9 4,244.6 4,609.2
AI server rail kit revenue 0 0 0 0 56.6 677.3 1,963.9 2,468.4

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Regular server railkit sales 0 480 358 712 1,271 2,375 4,245 4,609
AI server railkit sales 0 0 0 0 57 677 1,964 2,468
Other Revenue 2,041 1,519 967 1,212 1,106 1,168 1,168 1,168
Total Revenue 2,041 1,999 1,324 1,924 2,433 4,220 7,376 8,245
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (1,669) (1,636) (1,085) (1,422) (1,582) (2,274) (3,372) (3,376)
SG&A (208) (230) (191) (237) (301) (424) (728) (800)
Other op.expenses (31) (48) (38) (62) (66) (83) (147) (165)
Operating profit 133 85 9 203 484 1,439 3,129 3,904
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (22) (22) (17) (17) (12) (10) (9) (9)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (6) 110 12 54 60 52 13 12
Pre-tax profit 105 172 5 240 532 1,481 3,133 3,908
Tax (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (296) (626) (781)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 87 131 8 192 370 1,185 2,507 3,127
Net profit (adjusted) 87 131 8 192 370 1,185 2,507 3,127
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.006 35.983 44.880
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.006 35.983 44.880
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.653 2.234 0.127 2.914 5.311 17.006 35.983 44.880
DPS (TWD) 0.000 1.000 1.200 1.005 1.500 2.650 9.000 17.000
EBIT 133 85 9 203 484 1,439 3,129 3,904
EBITDA 267 218 125 322 628 1,692 3,407 4,220

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 105 172 5 240 532 1,481 3,133 3,908
Depreciation and amortisation 134 133 116 119 143 253 278 316
Tax paid (18) (42) 4 (48) (162) (296) (626) (781)
Change in working capital (238) 64 (10) (133) (251) 271 (354) (84)
Other operational CF items 57 43 (34) 117 78 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 40 370 80 295 341 1,709 2,431 3,359
Capex (68) (70) (29) (113) (122) (316) (479) (247)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (7) (4) (3) (21) (9) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (76) (74) (32) (134) (131) (316) (479) (247)
Change in debt 226 (383) (328) 111 84 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 45 171 413 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 (52) (70) (66) (99) (185) (627) (1,184)
Other financing CF items (23) (24) (21) (285) (47) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 248 (289) (7) (240) (62) (185) (627) (1,184)
Forex effect/others (0) 1 0 (3) (2) 0 0 0
Change in cash 212 9 42 (82) 145 1,207 1,325 1,928
Free cash flow (29) 300 52 181 219 1,392 1,952 3,112

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 30 June 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 363 384 414 327 496 1,703 3,028 4,955
Inventory 330 288 262 298 487 498 739 740
Accounts receivable 432 280 297 436 536 405 707 791
Other current assets 40 13 12 23 57 57 57 57
Total current assets 1,164 965 984 1,084 1,577 2,664 4,531 6,543
Fixed assets 2,530 2,492 2,430 2,454 2,464 2,528 2,729 2,660
Goodwill & intangibles 7 7 7 9 11 11 11 11
Other non-current assets 58 50 78 394 334 334 334 334
Total assets 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,537 7,606 9,549
Short-term debt 428 253 419 117 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 305 185 161 204 242 392 582 583
Other current liabilities 319 335 259 301 411 411 411 411
Total current liabilities 1,052 773 839 622 653 804 993 994
Long-term debt 1,388 1,166 696 1,027 552 552 552 552
Other non-current liabilities 11 4 39 61 37 37 37 37
Total liabilities 2,451 1,942 1,573 1,710 1,243 1,393 1,583 1,584
Share capital 525 585 656 660 697 697 697 697
Reserves/R.E./others 784 986 1,269 1,571 2,447 3,447 5,327 7,269
Shareholders' equity 1,309 1,571 1,925 2,231 3,144 4,144 6,023 7,965
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 3,759 3,513 3,499 3,941 4,386 5,537 7,606 9,549
EV 49,173 48,755 48,420 48,537 47,777 46,569 45,245 43,317
Net debt/(cash) 1,453 1,035 700 817 56 (1,151) (2,475) (4,403)
BVPS (TWD) 24.931 26.864 29.333 33.826 45.126 59.480 86.460 114.338

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 40.2 (2.1) (33.7) 45.3 26.4 73.4 74.8 11.8
EBITDA (YoY) 137.5 (18.6) (42.5) 157.3 94.8 169.4 101.4 23.9
Operating profit (YoY) 3,825.2 (36.2) (88.8) 2,042.9 138.1 197.0 117.5 24.8
Net profit (YoY) n.a. 50.6 (93.6) 2,208.0 92.5 220.2 111.6 24.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) n.a. 35.1 (94.3) 2,197.0 82.2 220.2 111.6 24.7
Gross-profit margin 18.2 18.1 18.0 26.1 35 46.1 54.3 59.1
EBITDA margin 13.1 10.9 9.5 16.8 25.8 40.1 46.2 51.2
Operating-profit margin 6.5 4.2 0.7 10.6 19.9 34.1 42.4 47.3
Net profit margin 4.3 6.5 0.6 10.0 15.2 28.1 34.0 37.9
ROAE 7.0 9.1 0.5 9.2 13.8 32.5 49.3 44.7
ROAA 2.5 3.6 0.2 5.2 8.9 23.9 38.1 36.5
ROCE 4.5 2.8 0.3 6.3 13.7 34.3 55.5 51.7
ROIC 4.1 2.4 0.4 5.7 10.8 37.2 76.5 87.9
Net debt to equity 111.0 65.9 36.4 36.6 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.0 24.2 0.0 20.0 30.4 20.0 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 61.4 65.1 79.5 69.5 72.9 40.7 27.5 33.2
Current ratio (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 6.6
Net interest cover (x) 6.0 3.8 0.6 12.1 38.9 149.8 355.9 453.4
Net dividend payout n.a. 60.5 53.7 792.1 51.5 49.9 52.9 47.2
Free cash flow yield n.a. 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.9 4.1 6.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1984, Nan Juen International Co., LTD. is a Taiwan-based slide and rail kit manufacturer headquartered in Taoyuan City. The company began its operations as a producer of furniture and kitchen rail kits, leveraging its mechanical engineering expertise to gradually expand its product portfolio. Building on decades of slide mechanism design experience, Nan Juen extended its capabilities into the server rail kit market, which has since become the primary growth driver of the business.

Nan Juen's current product portfolio spans two core categories: server rail kits and others (including kitchen rail kits, office furniture rail kits, etc.). Within the server rail kit segment, the company produces both regular server rail kits and AI server rail kits, serving major CSPs globally. The company has been listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange under the ticker 6584 TT.

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 30 June 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 Nan Juen's board consists of 9 directors, including 4 independent directors. The total number of directors is slightly lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. Nan Juen held 6 board meetings in 2024; the actual attendee rate was 98%. Most of the board members are Nan Juen's founder's family members, which we believe presents downside risks to independent governance. However, the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management, a positive for the board's quality.
Capital management 2 Nan Juen declared a DPS of TWD1.5 in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 51%. The payout ratio was in line with the level of 50-60% during 2021-24. As a rail kit manufacturer, Nan Juen is set to deliver solid revenue growth and FCF over our forecast horizon amidst strong ASP increase in the server rail kit market.
Related party & transaction 1 The company did not report any related-party transactions in 2025. We see limited risks from related-party transactions.
S Product quality & safety 2 Nan Juen has implemented a Project Management Information System (PMIS) to streamline R&D workflows and enhance cross-departmental collaboration. The company is further planning to introduce a Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) system, integrating the full product lifecycle from concept through to manufacturing and after-sales service. Beyond operational efficiency, the PLM adoption reflects Nan Juen's commitment to responsible product stewardship, enabling better oversight of material consumption and environmental impact across its operations. The company continues to advance its green product programme. Based on 2024 shipments, its carbon emissions were 4,490 tonnes of CO2e (vs. 3,794 tonnes in 2023), but with a lower CO2e per TWD1m revenue of 2.33 tonnes (vs. 2.87 tonnes in 2024), underscoring progress in lowering the environmental footprint of its products.
S Product design & lifecycle management 2 Nan Juen is actively reducing its greenhouse gas emissions under a core commitment to net- zero carbon operations, aligned with Taiwan's 2050 net-zero emission policy. The company has adopted ISO 14064-1 GHG inventory standards and maintains ISO 14001:2015 environmental management system certification, providing a structured framework for monitoring and improving energy use and emissions across its operations. Practical measures include regular audits of high-energy-consuming equipment, employee sustainability training, and collaboration with supply chain partners on green procurement. Progress is tracked through internal audits and external verification, with findings reviewed periodically to refine the company's decarbonisation strategy.
Supply chain management

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 17 Apr 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Nan Juen International (6584 TT): 30 June 2026

Daiwa